With only a handful of named storms so far this year, the 2022 hurricane season is off to a meager start, but is that a sign of things to come? The rest of the US has been reeling from drought, fire, floods, and record heat, while Florida has sheltered from only a slight increase in the heat of summer without even the threat from the tropics. But experts indicate this quiet won’t last much longer.
Those Initials Hurricane Forecasts Compared to Today’s
The NOAA’s forecast at the start of the season called for a busy Atlantic Hurricane season. They forecasted 14-21 named storms and 6 -10 hurricanes, with 3 – 5 of those becoming major weather events.
As of August w0th, we’ve only seen storms Alex, Bonnie, & Colin from the list. Colin made a quiet landfall as a low on the east coast. Alex and Bonnie didn’t even make landfall in the US. It’s been a quiet season, partly thanks to Saharan dust.
The revised forecast the NOAA published in early August still anticipates an active hurricane season. Numbers have decreased only slightly. Named storms were cut by just one, anticipating 14-20. Hurricane and major hurricane numbers remain the same. Compared to the average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of which are major, and the season is forecast to be well above average still.
“While we are now two months into the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, about 90% of all hurricanes and 95% of major hurricanes in the Atlantic occur after the 1st of August, on average,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State.
What Does It Mean for Your Association
While we may have had an abnormal summer, with a lack of regular afternoon storms in some areas, while others see flash flooding, this hurricane season isn’t all that abnormal. As Floridians, many of us acutely recall Andrew, the first named storm of that season, made landfall in late August back in 1992.
Use this extended period of quiet to do some maintenance and upkeep. If your association has a generator, run it! If it’s been a while since the board reviewed your hurricane preparedness plan, discuss it. If you’ve hired a new maintenance crew who will be responsible for shutter installation, make sure they know where the shutters are and how they are installed. It’s much better to have these long conversations now, than when the storm is approaching.
